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So, let me get this straight. A handful of quantum computing companies that lose money faster than a teenager with a new credit card are now in talks to get a government handout. And in exchange for our tax dollars, the Feds get an equity stake in a business model that’s currently based on science fiction and investor hype.
The market, in its infinite wisdom, saw this news and immediately sent the stocks soaring. D-Wave, IonQ, Rigetti—all up. (Quantum Computing Stocks D-Wave, IonQ, and Rigetti Talk With Trump Administration About Equity Stakes. Is It Time to Buy?) Of course they were. It’s the ultimate validation for a bubble. When the fundamentals don't matter, a government backstop is the next best thing.
This isn't just a small bump, either. This is a cherry on top of a year-long speculative sundae. We’re talking about gains that make crypto bros blush: Rigetti is up over 2,700% in a year. D-Wave, over 2,100%. These aren't companies that cured cancer. They're companies that are still trying to build a stable, error-corrected qubit, which is the technological equivalent of trying to build a skyscraper out of Jell-O. And now the government might be their biggest cheerleader. I just... I can't.
The Hype Train Just Got a Federal Engine
Let's be brutally honest about what these companies are. They aren't businesses in the traditional sense; they're R&D labs funded by stock market euphoria. D-Wave and IonQ burn through twice as much cash as they make in revenue. Rigetti? It torches six times its revenue. This isn't a growth strategy. It's a bonfire of cash.
And the valuations are a joke. We’re seeing price-to-sales ratios in the hundreds, and in one case, over 7,000. For context, during the peak of the dot-com insanity, the hotshots topped out with P/S ratios around 30 or 40. We are so far beyond common sense that we can't even see it in the rearview mirror anymore. This is a new dimension of speculative madness.
This entire sector is a bet on a technology that even its biggest proponents admit is years, if not decades, away from being useful. I can just picture the meeting. Some stone-faced Commerce Department official sits across a mahogany table from a CEO in a Patagonia vest, nodding along as the guy explains how their machine, cooled to a temperature colder than deep space, can almost factor a two-digit number. And the government suit thinks, "This is it. This is the future."
What a world.
Let's Talk About the "Business" of Burning Money
The government getting into the venture capital game is a bad idea. No, 'bad' doesn't cover it—this is a five-alarm dumpster fire of an idea. Private VCs are supposed to be the ones taking these insane risks because they're playing with their rich clients' money. When they're wrong—which they are, 90% of the time—their limited partners eat the loss. When the government is wrong, you eat the loss.
This whole thing feels less like a strategic investment and more like a bailout for venture capitalists who need a greater fool to offload their shares onto. They rode the hype wave, pumped these stocks to the moon, and now what? The technology isn't ready, the cash is running out, and they need an exit. Enter Uncle Sam, wallet open, ready to "invest in the future." Give me a break.
The real tech giants—Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon—are already pouring billions into their own quantum research. (Move Over, IonQ, Rigetti Computing, and D-Wave Quantum -- There's a Much Smarter Way to Invest in the Quantum Computing Revolution) Alphabet's "Willow" chip is supposedly light-years ahead of what these smaller guys are doing. Nvidia's CEO, a guy who actually builds the plumbing for our entire digital world, thinks we're two decades away from a commercially useful quantum computer. Two decades.
So why are we propping up the B-team? Is this really about national security, or is it about protecting the portfolios of a few well-connected investors in Silicon Valley? I think we all know the answer to that.
We've Seen This Movie Before, and It Sucks
Remember 3D printing? Every home was going to have one. We were all going to print our own shoes and car parts. Remember the metaverse? We were all going to live as legless avatars in a corporate-owned digital hellscape. Every few years, a new technology comes along, gets hyped into oblivion, sucks up billions in investment, and then quietly fades into a niche utility.
Quantum computing has all the same hallmarks. It’s a genuinely fascinating, potentially world-changing technology. But the gap between the scientific reality and the stock market narrative is a chasm. The government stepping in doesn't close that chasm; it just throws our money into it. It's offcourse a gamble, but it's a gamble where the house—the early investors and executives—gets to walk away with a guaranteed payout.
The Trump administration has already done this with Intel and a few other companies, so this ain't a one-off experiment. It's becoming a playbook. They frame it as a bold, new industrial policy, a way to compete with China... but when you look at the financials of the companies they're picking, it starts to look a lot more like corporate welfare.
Then again, maybe I'm the one who's crazy. Maybe this is the masterstroke that ensures American technological dominance for the next hundred years. Or maybe, just maybe, we're funding the most expensive science fair project in human history.
Just Light the Money on Fire
Let's stop pretending this is about innovation. This is a transfer of risk from private speculators to the public ledger. The government isn't "investing" in quantum computing; it's buying shares in unprofitable lottery-ticket companies at the peak of a hype cycle. The early investors who got in when these stocks were pennies on the dollar must be laughing all the way to the bank. They found their greater fool, and it’s the American taxpayer. Welcome to the future, where your tax dollars are the new venture capital. Don't expect any returns.
